The Future Of War

Historians and military experts, when they discuss the evolution of warfare, usually refer to the introductions of new technologies, from the airplane to the smart bomb, and point with hope to the growing influence of the confraternity of nations, usually expressed by the toothless United Nations. I believe that, for several reasons, the use of military force to express and resolve disputes between nations will diminish over the next century or two.

Democracy and capitalism are natural political and economic states for humans, and the world has been evolving toward those states over the last few centuries. Witness the irreversible changes happening since China has accepted capitalism, even in the face of stubbornly Communistic leadership. Most wars throughout history were caused by tyrants justifying their existence and inspiring their people by conquering their neighbors. Democracies, on the other hand, are naturally introspective and care little for conquest. In spite of the current experience in Iraq, it has been rare for any democracy to initiate a war, invade its neighbors or take preemptive action against another nation. As more nations evolve toward some form of true democracy, they will be all the less likely to contemplate attacking others.

There will always, however, be disputes between and among nations. What will change will be that it will be less and less effective and rewarding to attempt to resolve those disputes with military action. As we have learned, to varying degrees, from imposing economic sanctions, there are other ways to impact your foes that are increasingly more effective. For one, the powerful and ubiquitous news media can be influenced to demonize the opposition, an increasingly persuasive tool. Likewise, aggressive public relations drives can significantly undermine another regime. OPEC learned years ago to use their oil to influence world opinion and dealings, and more and more nations will use their economic power against foes. If you have something someone else desires, withholding it can make a difference. And, perhaps the most powerful weapon of all, the Internet, will increasingly be used to influence others, even those who live under dictators. Today, only North Korea has managed to keep their people unaware of the Internet, but even that cannot last forever. If people can see how others think and live, and especially if they can freely talk with each other, it's difficult to maintain hatred for very long.